Dismantling combinatorial barriers: Transferring M-Pesa’s institutional innovation to unbanked markets

Abstract

In a world where Africa's mobile money platforms account for 70% of global transactions—processing more than $1 trillion per year—a clear paradox persists: 1.4 billion individuals in Latin America and Southeast Asia are still excluded from formal banking. This study addresses a critical question: what enabled Kenya's M-Pesa to reach 80% of adults, and how might this approach bridge the inclusion gap in other countries, such as Brazil's cash-dependent favelas or Indonesia's fractured archipelago? We investigate the anatomy of fintech dissemination using comparative policy analysis and adoption barrier modeling in Kenya, Brazil, and Indonesia. Our findings show that M-Pesa's success was not just technological, but also institutional—built on light-touch regulation that empowered telcos, dense agent networks with liquidity guarantees, and easy onboarding. Brazil's Pix, despite its technical brilliance, barely reaches 40% of favela people, owing to bank-centric administration and identity obstacles. Complex KYC laws and limited agent density in Eastern Indonesia lock fishers in a cash economy, resulting in a 22% loss of income due to transaction inefficiencies. Crucially, we demonstrate that Africa's paradigm can be transferred—but not through repetition. Success necessitates context-sensitive adaptation: regulators must replace rigidity with tiered KYC standards, policymakers must create viable agent ecosystems, and institutions must embrace South-South collaboration. This study provides a strategy for changing mobile money from a niche innovation to a universal utility, demonstrating that when ecosystems work together, finance flows like water.