Evaluating Ghana’s resource swap experiment: A critical analysis of the gold for oil program and the Ghana gold board
Abstract views: 39
/ 
PDF downloads: 10
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71350/3062192580Keywords:
Ghana gold for oil program, resource swap governance, Ghana gold board, domestic gold aggregationAbstract
The Ghana Gold for Oil (G4O) program, where the Bank of Ghana exchanged gold from the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) for gasoline imports, was intended to stabilize the volatile Ghana Cedi and secure energy supplies. Instead, it exposed the nation's grave institutional issues: although GoldBod formalized small-scale mining and doubled national gold reserves to 15.2 tonnes with success, the Bank of Ghana's implementation of G4O swaps lost GHS 2.137 billion due to governance breakdowns in swap mechanics—premium payments for GoldBod-sourced gold conflicting with discounted international swap rates, politically motivated fuel subsidies, and bureaucratic delays that incurred demurrage penalties—until post-2025 reforms depoliticized pricing and introduced blockchain traceability, coinciding with the Cedi's 18% appreciation and forex reserve recovery to $6.9 billion, demonstrating that institutional segregation between aggregation excellence and swap execution is absolute; therefore, this analysis derives actionable imperatives for resource-rich economies: domestic aggregation institutions (such as GoldBod) must be kept operationally separate from swap operators, real-time price synchronization must prevent arbitrage, and strategic minerals must fund industrialization (e.g., refineries capturing 30% export premiums) not consumption, redefining resource sovereignty as the institutional sagacity to utilize mineral endowments for structural resilience—a template for 18 countries seeking similar stabilization in currency crises.
Downloads
References
Adam, C. S., & Bevan, D. L. (2015). Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries. Journal of Public Economics, 89(4), 571–597. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.02.006
Adam, K., & Mensah, J. K. (2024). The mechanics and market effects of Ghana’s Gold-for-Oil programme. Centre for Economic Policy Research Working Paper No. 10432.
Addo, E. S. (2024). Institutional reform or redundancy? Assessing the Ghana Gold Board in the context of mineral governance. Resources Policy, 89, 102567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.102567
Alesina, A., & Summers, L. H. (1993). Central bank independence and macroeconomic performance: Some comparative evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25(2), 151–162. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2077833
Amoah, L. G., & Sarpong, D. B. (2024). Quasi-fiscal risks and central bank credibility: Lessons from Ghana’s Gold for Oil programme. Journal of African Economies, *33*(2), 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad025
Aryee, B. N. A. (2024). Ghana’s mining regulatory landscape: Overlap, conflict, and the quest for coherence. Ghana Chamber of Mines Monograph Series.
Aryeetey, E., & Kanbur, R. (Eds.). (2017). The economy of Ghana, sixty years after independence. Oxford University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198753438.001.0001
Auditor-General of Ghana. (2024). Special audit report on the Gold for Oil programme (G4O). Republic of Ghana.
Bank of Ghana. (2023a). Annual report and financial statements 2022. https://www.bog.gov.gh
Bank of Ghana. (2021). Annual Report 2021. https://www.bog.gov.gh/
Bank of Ghana. (2022). Annual Report 2022. https://www.bog.gov.gh/
Bank of Ghana. (2025). Press Release: Termination of Gold for Oil Programme [Press release, March 2025]. https://www.bog.gov.gh/
Bank of Ghana. (2022a). Gold for Oil programme: Operational guidelines. https://www.bog.gov.gh
Bank of Ghana. (2022b). Press release: Launch of Gold for Oil programme. https://www.bog.gov.gh
Bank of Ghana. (2023a). Annual report and financial statements 2022. https://www.bog.gov.gh
Bank of Ghana. (2023). Annual Report and Financial Statements 2022. https://www.bog.gov.gh
Bawumia, M. (2023). The role of the central bank in economic development: Reflections on recent interventions. University of Ghana Business School Distinguished Lecture Series.
Beach, D., & Pedersen, R. B. (2019). Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines (2nd ed.). University of Michigan Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.10072208
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2019). Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty. Quantitative Finance, 19(4), 663–681. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1508879
Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: A tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348–355.
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming sector and de-industrialisation in a small open economy. The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825–848. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232670 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2232670
Crawford, G., & Botchwey, G. (2024). Formalising artisanal and small-scale mining in Ghana: The persistent challenges of the Ghana Gold Board. The Extractive Industries and Society, *17*, 101365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2024.101365
Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2018). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). SAGE.
Cukierman, A., Webb, S. B., & Neyapti, B. (1992). Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes. The World Bank Economic Review, 6(3), 353–398. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/6.3.353
Dzreke, S. E., & Dzreke, S. S. (2025). Resetting Ghana: The Economic and Governance Consequences of COVID-19 Fund Mismanagement and Election-Driven Fiscal Excesses in the 2020 Presidential Election. International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews, 12(2), 156-172. https://doi.org/10.56975/ijrar.v12i2.314501 DOI: https://doi.org/10.56975/ijrar.v12i2.314501
Energy Commission Ghana. (2023). Quarterly petroleum price analysis report: Q4 2023. https://energycom.gov.gh
Frankel, J. A. (2012). The natural resource curse: A survey of diagnoses and some prescriptions. In Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries (pp. 7-34).
Ghana Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources. (2021). Operational framework for the Domestic Gold Purchase program.
Ghana Parliament. (2025). Ghana Gold Board Act, 2025 (Act 1140).
Ghana Statistical Service. (2025). Consumer Price Index Bulletin: Q2 2025.
Gyampo, R., & Graham, E. (2023). Governance deficits in Ghana's Gold-for-Oil program. African Governance Review, 17(2), 45-67.
Gyeke-Dako, A., Turkson, F. E., & Baffoe, S. (2024). Fuel price dynamics and policy interventions: An empirical analysis of Ghana’s Gold for Oil programme. Energy Economics, *126*, 107032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107032 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107032
Hennart, J.-F. (1989). Can the "New Forms of Investment" substitute for the "Old Forms"? A transaction costs perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 20(2), 211–234. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490358
Hilson, G., & Maconachie, R. (2020). Artisanal and small-scale mining and the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives from Ghana. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(3), 900-912. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.05.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.05.008
Hilson, G., Hilson, A., Maconachie, R., McQuilken, J., & Goumandakoye, H. (2022). Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in sub-Saharan Africa: Re-conceptualizing formalization and ‘illegal’ activity. Resources Policy, 77, 102690.
Hilson, G., Hu, Y., & Kumah, C. (2024). Artisanal gold miners’ response to state formalisation: Evidence from Ghana’s Gold Board initiative. World Development, *176*, 106521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106521
Humphreys, M., & Sandbu, M. E. (2007). The political economy of natural resource funds. In Escaping the Resource Curse (pp. 194–233). Columbia University Press.
Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER). (2023). State of the Ghanaian Economy Report 2022. University of Ghana.
International Monetary Fund. (2023). Ghana: 2023 Article IV consultation and request for an extended credit facility arrangement. IMF Country Report No. 23/169. https://www.imf.org
International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). Ghana: 2022 Article IV consultation—Press release and staff report (Country Report No. 2022/268). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400207143.002
International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/commodity/
Ghana Gold Board Act, 2025 (Act 1140). Government Printer, Assembly Press.
International Monetary Fund. (n.d.). International Financial Statistics. https://data.imf.org
Kolstad, I., & Søreide, T. (2009). Corruption in natural resource management: Implications for policy makers. Resources Policy, 34(4), 214-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.05.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.05.001
Krippendorff, K. (2019). Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology (4th ed.). SAGE. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781071878781
Marin, D., & Schnitzer, M. (2002). Contracts in trade and transition: The resurgence of barter. MIT Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/2145.001.0001
Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the resource curse. The Economic Journal, 116(508), 1–20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01045.x
Ministry of Finance, Ghana. (2023). *2023 mid-year fiscal policy review*. https://mofep.gov.gh
Ministry of Finance, Ghana. (2023). Details of the Gold for Oil Programme [Press briefing, January 2023]. https://mofep.gov.gh/
Ministry of Finance, Ghana. (2023). Gold for Oil (G4O) program: Policy framework.
Mirus, R., & Yeung, B. (1986). Economic incentives for countertrade. Journal of International Business Studies, 17(3), 27–39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490433
Mohan, G., & Asante, K. (2015). Beyond the enclave: Towards a critical political economy of China and Africa. Development and Change, 46(3), 457-479. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12148 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12148
Mueller, D. C. (2003). Public choice III. Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511813771
National Petroleum Authority. (2023). *Market monitoring reports (Jan-Dec 2023)*. https://npa.gov.gh
North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
Osei, R. D., & Asante, Y. (2024). Exchange rate stabilization through commodity swaps: A case study of Ghana’s Gold for Oil. African Development Review, *36*(1), 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12738 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12738
Patton, M. Q. (2015). Qualitative research & evaluation methods (4th ed.). SAGE.
Prebisch, R. (1950). The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. United Nations Department of Economic Affairs.
Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC). (2025). Annual Report on Petroleum Revenue Management.
Public Interest and Accountability Committee. (2023). Report on the management and use of petroleum revenues for the period…. https://www.piacghana.org
Public Interest and Accountability Committee. (2024). Special audit report on the Gold for Oil programme. https://www.piacghana.org
Reisen, H. (2022). Quasi-fiscal operations of central banks: Risks and safeguards. SUERF Policy Note No. 279.
Ross, M. L. (2012). The oil curse: How petroleum wealth shapes the development of nations. Princeton University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400841929
Quartey, P. (2024). Beyond the barter: Structural reforms and sustainable macroeconomic stability in resource-rich Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, *38*(2), 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.2.167
Quartey, P., & Sackey, H. A. (2024). Foreign exchange reserves dynamics in Ghana: Impact of the Gold for Oil programme. University of Ghana Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research Working Paper 2024/01.
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827–838. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00125-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00125-8
Transparency International Ghana. (2024). Opacity and accountability risks in Ghana’s Gold for Oil programme. Policy Brief No. 7. https://tighana.org
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2021). Commodity dependence and development: A growth perspective. https://unctad.org/publication/commodity-dependence-and-development-growth-perspective
Williamson, O. E. (2000). The new institutional economics: Taking stock, looking ahead. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(3), 595–613. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595
World Bank. (2024). Ghana economic update: Navigating economic recovery amidst global headwinds. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ghana
World Bank. (2023). Ghana Economic Update: Price Surge - Unraveling Inflation’s Toll on Poverty and Food Security. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ghana/publication/economic-update
World Gold Council. (2022). Central Bank Gold Statistics 2022.
Yeyati, E. L. (2021). The cost of foreign exchange intervention: Concepts and measurement. BIS Working Papers No. 950.
Yin, R. K. (2018). Case study research and applications (6th ed.). SAGE.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Advanced Research Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
